Week 6: John Has Found His Number, and He Is Keeping It

Only four teams in league history have started 5-0, Thinh's included. John has ended two of them, and both times he did it in Week 6. The first was the vuvuzelas in 2016, a team that is no longer in the league. John also knows the subject from the other side: his 2015 team started 10-0 and finished second. None of the three earlier 5-0 teams won the title, so Thinh may consider this a weight off.

Thinh had beaten John in their last four meetings, including a 211.30 last season, and set a nearly perfect lineup this week. It did not matter. Six of his seven bench players did not play, so 99.1% efficiency mostly meant there was nobody else to start, and even his best possible lineup would have lost by 19.54. His one interesting decision was made for him: Joe Burrow did not play, so Brock Purdy started. Romeo Doubs, whom Thinh had started the week before for 2.10, played for John instead. Doubs is on his fourth roster in this league this season. For John he played two snaps, scored 10.70, and is now on IR, which is about as efficient as football gets.

The quarterback change is the part we cannot stop thinking about. Lawrence had started four straight weeks. John finally benched him, and Lawrence immediately had his best game of the season. A normal manager would be upset. John's score moved by 0.74.

Kevin beat Patrick in the 2016 championship, and he beat him twice last season with scores above 170. None of that was available this week. Patrick arrived on a two-game losing streak, and Kevin has become very reliable about ending those. This was the third straight week an opponent snapped a skid against him: Nate's 0-3, Dashon's 0-4, and now Patrick's two straight losses. Kevin is 2-4. He has been 2-4 after six weeks three times before, in 2014, 2018 and 2024, and finished ninth, tenth and tenth.

The lineup had one clear miss. DeMario Douglas, in his first week on Kevin's roster, scored 16.10 on the bench. Juwan Johnson, at flex for the third straight week, scored 0.00 while playing 42 snaps. His last three starts go 8.90, 3.60, 0.00, a trend that did not need a fourth week to confirm. Douglas in for Johnson was worth more than the 6.42 margin. Kevin's best possible lineup would have won by 9.68.

There was good news at quarterback. After twice this season watching his kicker outscore his quarterback, Kevin got 22.52 from Kirk Cousins and 7.00 from Jason Myers. Kickers league-wide fell 35.8% this week. Patrick's went from 7.00 to 17.00. Kevin solved the kicker problem in the one week it moved to the other side of the field.

Patrick's season was rescued by the kind of decision we keep promising to recognize. Sam Darnold had gone 35.66, 17.32, 10.30 in three starts. Patrick replaced him with Jordan Love, who scored 22.24. The win cut Kevin's series lead to 15-10. Patrick's lineups are the most efficient in the league this season, at 94.4%. He spotted a quarterback falling off before he hit the bottom, which is more than we can say for our own advice.

For four weeks, Andrew's quarterback question was whether to start Jalen Hurts or Tyler Shough, and Shough kept answering it from the bench: 24.38, then 31.80. When Andrew did start Shough, he got 17.94. When he benched him again, Shough scored -0.16. This week Hurts was on IR, Jacoby Brissett was no longer on the roster, and Andrew had one quarterback. Shough scored 32.96. Andrew posted the week's high score, his best of the season, and would have beaten everyone. It is possible the problem was never the quarterbacks.

Daniel would have beaten everyone but Andrew, which put him in the worst possible spot on the schedule. He also made the decisive mistake. He started Dak Prescott over Bryce Young, and Young outscored him 23.84 to 13.02, a gap larger than the 8.84 margin. This was not a coin flip after the fact. Prescott has scored less every week since Week 2: 37.76, 20.94, 20.10, 14.64, 13.02. Young has scored 25.46 and 23.84 in the two games he has played since Week 3. The trend was available before kickoff.

Andrew has won the last two meetings and leads the series 6-4. He is still 2-4, a year after going 12-3. He found the best lineup of his season by running out of alternatives, which is a strategy, though not one we can recommend with a straight face.

Nate set the only perfect lineup in the league this week. It scored 77.52, the lowest score of the week, and would have lost to all nine teams. Every player on his bench scored 0.00. Five of them did not play at all: Lamar Jackson, Josh Jacobs, T.J. Hockenson, Deebo Samuel and Aaron Jones. The sixth, Brian Thomas, played 15 snaps and scored nothing. In Week 3 we suggested Nate start players who were having a Sunday. Everyone in his lineup was. Nobody on his bench was, and that is how you set a perfect lineup worth 77.52.

It also turned out to be the same number. Nate scored 77.60 in Week 2. In between he scored 146.38 and 151.90. John has found a number this season, and Nate apparently has one too. His is lower. The damage came at running back, where his four starters combined for 8.00 a week after producing 39.30. Across the NFL, 100-yard rushers fell from seven to two, so Nate had company, though not much.

Tony did not need a perfect lineup. Goff, Gibbs and Montgomery did not play, which took most of his usual decisions off the table, and he used 96.4% of his best possible lineup against the emptiest bench in the league. Josh Allen outscored Jared Goff, 22.30 to 0.00, ending a three-week run of Goff winning that particular matchup from the bench. Colston Loveland, meanwhile, scored 15.50, his season high. That is exactly what Dalton Kincaid scored on Tony's bench in Week 1, when this all started. Tony now starts both. It took until Week 6 for the one in the lineup to have the big game.

The 60.98 margin is the second-largest in 26 meetings. Nate is 1-5. Fifteen teams had started 1-5 before him, and one reached the top four: Patrick in 2015. Nate was one of the other 14 last year.

Last week we noted that Terry McLaurin scored 10.20 on Dashon's bench. Dashon started him. McLaurin scored 3.20 and is now listed Out with a knee injury. Alvin Kamara had scored 1.60 as a starter. Dashon benched him. Kamara scored 13.90. Dashon is managing from last week's box score, which is also how we write this column, so we are in no position to object. We regret the advice, and this time we were only describing.

He won anyway. Dashon now leads the series 16-15, his first lead in it since 2021, and has won the last three meetings. His only title came against Jonathan in the 2014 championship, so there is history here, and lately all of it points one direction.

Jonathan had the worst lineup of the week, using 84% of what was available to him. Germie Bernard, in his first week on the roster, played 74 of 79 snaps and scored 20.20 on the bench. Rome Odunze started and scored 5.40. In four starts this season Odunze has never scored more than 6.20, and his best week, 12.40, came on the bench. Jonathan's best possible lineup would have won by 3.12. A week ago he scored the most points in the league. This week he would have lost to eight teams, and the one he could beat was not on the schedule.

The last time Kevin played Thinh, he scored 51.62, the worst week in his 255-week career, and lost by 92.82, the biggest margin in their 30 meetings. Thinh leads the series 19-10-1. The 1 is a 2022 game that ended in a tie, which is the closest Kevin has come in a while.

Thinh is coming off his first loss and gets his quarterback decision back. Burrow did not play in Week 6; in his last two starts he scored 25.72 and 32.60, while Purdy has gone 23.62, 20.16 and 19.36 over the last three weeks. If Burrow is available, the trend makes the choice. Kevin's choice is at flex, where Juwan Johnson's last three weeks speak clearly enough.

Thinh is on a one-game losing streak. Kevin has spent three weeks ending those.

Patrick has won the last four meetings and leads 17-12. The defending champion also leads the league in lineup efficiency. Jonathan is third-worst, and has left 113.14 points through legal changes this season.

Jonathan's decision this week is not a guess. Davante Adams is listed Out with a knee injury. Germie Bernard played nearly every snap in his first game on the roster. Odunze has started four times without reaching 6.20. There is a version of this lineup in which Jonathan does not start Odunze, and it is the one we would pick, with the usual disclaimer about our record. Jonathan beat Patrick in a 2014 semifinal by 2.46 and has not had a playoff meeting with him since. He would settle for a regular-season one.

John's number has a simple record: 4-0 when the other team scored less, 0-1 when it scored more. Andrew has scored more than 132.40 in four of his six weeks, averages 134.60, and just posted 151.06. That is the problem with a number. Eventually you play someone who has a bigger one.

John leads the series 15-8, won their 2021 semifinal by 0.12, and lost the last meeting, 115.56 to 105.72. He started 0-2 this season. Three teams before him have gone from 0-2 to 4-2; all three finished in the top three, and Thinh won the 2019 title doing it. Andrew is 2-4 with the league's highest score of the week and his quarterback question settled by injury. John, meanwhile, will presumably score about 133.

Daniel's last three weeks: 180.66, 151.34, 142.22. His Weeks 4 through 6 of last season: 183.40, 153.42, 152.78. He followed that by going 1-8 and finishing last. The collapse started in Week 7. He would prefer not to commemorate it.

The good news is that this is Nate. Daniel leads the series 4-2, though Nate's one big win, by 102.04 in 2024, is the largest in it. Lamar Jackson is still listed Out, Josh Jacobs is listed away for personal reasons, and Nate's running backs gave him 8.00 last week. Daniel's own fix is visible from here: Prescott has dropped four weeks in a row, and Young has topped 23 in each of his last two games. Nate needs players who will play. Daniel needs to stop starting the one who keeps playing less well.

Tony is 5-1 for the first time in 13 seasons. Before this year he had never been better than 4-2 after six weeks. Of the 14 teams that started 5-1 before him, 13 reached the top four, and the four that reached the final all won it. Tony has reached the last two finals and lost both. History has a strong opinion about 5-1 teams and a separate, equally strong opinion about Tony.

He has won the last four meetings with Dashon, although Dashon leads the series 12-10 and is on the first winning streak of his season. Tony's real question is health. Mike Evans is listed Out with an Achilles injury, and if Goff plays, so does the quarterback question Tony ignored for three weeks while Goff outscored Allen from the bench. Dashon's running backs are in worse shape: Achane on IR, Barkley Out, Mixon questionable.

We would tell Dashon whom to start, but he has already shown he will do what we say. We have decided that this is too much responsibility.